Brazil’s betting lobby pushes regulators to block Polymarket and Kalshi, citing unlicensed operations and a $6.68B online gambling market at stake.
Brazil’s licensed betting companies have moved against prediction market platforms operating in the country. The industry’s lobby met with the Prizes and Betting Secretariat, Brazil’s gambling watchdog, to request an outright block on Polymarket and Kalshi.
The request centers on one core complaint. Local operators each pay a licensing fee of over $5.7 million and meet strict local rules. These platforms, the lobby argues, skip all of that entirely.
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Brazil’s Betting Industry Draws a Line
As reported by Folha de S. Paulo, the betting companies say prediction market contracts are essentially wagers and must fall under local betting law. The argument is not entirely without merit. Brazil’s online betting sector pulled in $6.68 billion in gross revenue in 2025. Over 25 million people participated that year.
The unlicensed platforms are cutting into that space. Without a licensing fee or local compliance burden, they operate at a cost advantage that domestic players simply cannot match.
What makes it messier is the regulatory grey zone. Brazil has no law that directly governs prediction markets. No single authority has claimed full jurisdiction yet.
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Who Actually Oversees These Platforms?
That question is splitting opinion. Brazil’s Securities and Exchange Commission, known as the CVM, views some of these contracts as resembling securities. It has approved the introduction of contracts linked to economic and financial outcomes. The Prizes and Betting Secretariat, on the other hand, sees them as bets.
Neither regulator has made a definitive move. For now, the Secretariat says it is “seeking to ensure consistency with the legal framework and prevent regulatory gaps,” according to Bitcoin.com.
Polymarket does not directly operate in Brazil. Still, Brazilian users can access its infrastructure and trade contracts. Kalshi’s situation is different. Through Clear, a subsidiary of XP Group, select clients with international accounts will access Kalshi contracts tied to Brazilian inflation and interest rates.
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The Gray Zone Keeps Expanding
Analysts reviewing the situation say each contract will need individual assessment to determine its classification. Some fall under securities law. Others look more like gambling products. That case-by-case approach is going to take time, and the betting lobby is not interested in waiting.
Lucas Rabechini, head of financial products at XP, has spoken openly about why the firm moved into prediction markets. In his words, these products could be “not only innovative but disruptive.” That kind of framing is exactly what worries Brazil’s existing betting operators. The $5.7 million-plus licensing hurdle starts to look absurd against a platform entering through a brokerage loophole.
President Lula has separately pledged to crack down on online gambling more broadly. He has cited its effects on Brazilian families as a reason to tighten controls. Whether that political pressure translates into regulatory action against prediction markets specifically remains unclear.
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What Happens Next
The Secretariat is monitoring. The CVM is watching. The betting industry is pushing hard. And two of the world’s largest prediction market platforms are sitting in the middle of all this.
Brazil’s online market is too large to ignore. 25 million active bettors in a single year makes it one of the most active gambling markets in Latin America. Platforms that can tap into that base without a $5.7M entry fee hold a real edge, at least until the rules catch up.
The betting lobby’s request may not produce an immediate block. But it has put the issue directly in front of the regulator. That alone changes the conversation.
The post Big Bet Takes Action to Block Prediction Markets in Brazil appeared first on Live Bitcoin News.
